29 September 2026

This is a hand draw map of the Afar region provided to us by APDA. It shows the different zones within Afar and the neighbouring regions and countries wherein the conflict has restarted.
The most troubling advancements are in the region in the north on the border of Tigray. APDA tells us that Daalol (marked Xallol), Barhale, Wasama and Konnaba are entirely cut off, with a combined force from Eritrea and Tigray pushing out government forces. They are now allegedly taking over the zonal capital of Aba’ala, with intense fighting between the government and the TPLF in the area between Aba’ala and Erebti. Magaale is also apparently out of governmental control, with displaced peoples expecting to come towards and into Erebti in the coming days.
From the west, long-rage artillery is audible in Yallow, adjacent to the Amhara region. It appears that the TPLF, alongside rebel groups, is advancing south in eastern Amhara, looking to reach areas close to Sifra. This advancement mirrors the conflict routes that were seen in the 2021/22 civil war.
What could happen next?
If the TPLF tries to come through Sifra to Mille road, this could be disastrous for the already weakened stability of Ethiopia. This would be an attempt to control the country’s import and export route through Djibouti and will have catastrophic consequences in terms of displacement and loss.
This crisis is made worse by the poor rainy season and emerging El Nino, with considerable malnutrition and weakened herds impacting communities. Combined with displacement, this could have disastrous consequences for an already vulnerable people.
What can APDA do?
Yesterday, APDA sent food, medicine and a health officer to Erebti. In the coming days, they will put together a sustainable mobile health team to meet and work with displaced people.
APDA urgently needs food that can be eaten without cooking. Dates and passo (a mixture of ground grains that does not require cooking) are essential to stave off malnutrition for displaced people. Currently, the organisation anticipates upwards of 3000 of the most affected mothers and children will need this help.
APDA, while limited in total resources, is properly equipped to handle this crisis, as it has development workers in almost all sub-districts of the areas affected. They are readily able to locate displaced people and provide them with the assistance that they need, and are aware of how the situation is unfolding.
Staying Informed Matters
This conflict, stemming from unresolved territorial disputes and regional power struggles, has a significant impact on the people of northern Ethiopia. Displacement will be rife, and the humanitarian response will need to be significant.
We will continue to monitor developments and keep you updated with credible information as this conflict progresses, and hopefully is resolved.
We thank our partners at APDA for their updates and will keep you abreast of all the work that they are doing to aid those displaced across Afar.
If you wish to donate to support the work that we are doing in the region, you can do so here.
Information in this article reflects reports available as of 29 September 2026. The situation remains fluid and may change rapidly.